Footfall, retail and leisure spending not affected by London low-emission zone expansion

The expansion of ULEZ – London’s low-emission zone that aims to reduce air pollution by charging certain vehicles to drive – has not impacted footfall, retail or leisure spend, a new report reveals. The report analyses the impact of the low-emission zone expansion which took place in 2023.

 

Footfall and in-store spend data aggregated by BT Active Intelligence and Mastercard collected the year before and after implementation showed no statistically significant impact. Footfall trends were measured from 29 August 2022 to 28 August 2024. Although the impact of industrial action, weather and other short-term factors such as events could be seen, the long-term data in London showed little deviation from nationwide trends. Any reduction in the spend is not specific to London or the London-wide ULEZ expansion. 

 

There were concerns that economic activity would be affected by the ULEZ expansion.

 

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: “Today’s report shows that ULEZ works, driving down levels of pollution, taking old polluting cars off our roads and bringing cleaner air to millions more Londoners."

 

Barbara Stoll, Senior Director at Clean Cities Campaign said: “Despite fierce opposition – even from the government of the time – the Mayor stood firm, and the results speak for themselves. The ULEZ shows that when city leaders have vision and determination, they can reduce inequities and transform urban life for the better. We urge the Mayor to continue his leadership in championing healthy, climate-friendly transport and to stay committed to making London the world’s first truly electric-vehicle-ready global city.”

 

The data collected by BT Active Intelligence divides the entire Greater London area into 350m hexagons. Footfall counts are based on the number of people who spend at least 10 minutes in a hexagon in a 3-hour period using mobile device data with people classified in each hexagon as resident, visitor or worker depending on their frequently visited locations. This data is combined with economic activity measured by in-store Mastercard transactions in 3-hour time periods aggregated to an 100m resolution grid.

 

The report also shows that deprived communities have seen the biggest benefits of ULEZ expansion. The report shows an estimated 80% reduction in the number of people exposed to illegal levels of pollution in communities living near London’s busiest roads. Without ULEZ expansion in 2023, approximately 128,000 people would still be exposed to NO2 roadside concentrations exceeding the UK annual limit. This number has reduced to 24,000 people – an 81 per cent reduction.

 

The negative health impacts associated with exposure to air pollution include asthma, heart and lung disease and stroke ­– the wider aim of ULEZ is to reduce emissions in order to reduce the health impacts of air pollution and the related cost to the NHS, social care and the economy.

 

Over a six year period, CO2 emissions in London are estimated to be 813,000 tonnes lower, NOx emissions are estimated to be 17,770 tonnes lower and PM2.5 emissions are 210 tonnes lower. NO2 concentrations are estimated to be 27 per cent lower than they would have been without ULEZ and its expansion.

 

Find out more: Read the London-wide Ultra Low Emission Zone - One Year Report